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RL142 — What history tells us about today’s economy and markets

on the Retirement Lifestyle Show, Roshan Loungani, Eric Olson, and Adrian Nicholson break down the latest edition of JP Morgan’s Economic and Market Outlook. They discuss the current economic and investment landscape and how investors can use this information to make concrete investment decisions. Listen now to hear all about What History Tells Us About Today’s Economy and Markets.

[10:40] Life After the Modern Portfolio Theory

[15:47] The Value Investing Strategy

[19:23] The Value Tracking Process

[23:40] The Evolution of Behavioral Finance

[27:25] The Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio

[29:32] The Warren Buffett Indicator

[33:40] Catching the Falling Knife

[41:47] Analyzing the Performance of Multi-Factor Investing

[47:20] Pros and Cons of Implementing Several Strategies

[01:00:20] Alternative Investment Opportunities

To read the Full Show Notes scroll down or click here.

  • Roshan Loungani can be reached at roshan.loungani@aretewealth.com or at 202-536-4468.
  • Erik Olson can be reached at erik.olson@aretewealth.com or 815-940-4652.
  • Adrian Nicholson can be reached at adrian.nicholson@aretewealth.com or at 703-915-8905

Listen now to hear all about What History Tells Us About Today’s Economy and Markets.

Select episodes, like this one, can be found on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0ZZPM3xk6onXNpb1ceAkCg

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What History Tells Us About Today’s Economy and Markets

Full Show Notes:

The Recession Question

The rule of thumb definition of a recession historically has been two consecutive quarters of the GDP shrinking. So, with everything happening in 2022, does that mean we’re in a recession already? Technically, yes. But here’s the thing; there are a lot of things in this economy that just don’t make sense. Every trend you look at won’t feel like the conventional understanding of what a recession is. For example, when you look at the third quarter numbers, we actually had 2.6% growth on a quarterly basis. Year on year then means that the economy is 1.8% larger than it was the year before. Yes, the U.S. economy might be teetering on the edge of recession. But whether or not we’re actually in one, like we always say, is still anyone’s guess. 

Consumer Confidence and the Stock Market

For most investors, 2022 has to be one of the most disappointing years to be an investor. The pandemic, sharply rising inflation, falling stock prices, and Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, combined with numerous other factors, have driven consumer confidence to an all-time low. When investors don’t feel confident about the markets, their natural tendency is to be cautious. Some go as far as selling all their risky assets in general, focusing more on risky stocks. However, history has repeatedly proven that you shouldn’t let how you feel about the economy influence your investing decisions. For example, in the JP Morgan report, on average, buying when confidence was high returned 4.1%, while buying when confidence was low returned 24.9%. However, we’re not suggesting this might be a great time to buy. We are suggesting that when planning for end-of-year investing, you should focus more on the data and the valuations rather than how they feel about an investment.

Links and Resources:

The JPMorgan Guide to the Markets

The Case for Long-Term Value Investing by Jim Cullen

 

Listen now to hear all about What History Tells Us About Today’s Economy and Markets.

Disclaimer Welcome, you are now listening to the retirement lifestyle show with Roshan Loungani Erik Olson and Adrian Nicholson. This show is an exploration of ideas to help you work towards your ideal retirement. Roshan Loungani and Erik Olson serve clients across the US. They offer financial planning and investment advice through Arete Wealth Advisors, LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor and securities through Arete Wealth Management LLC, member FINRA, SIPC, and NFA. Get ready for the financial independence of your dreams. All opinions expressed by podcast hosts and guests are solely their own are based on information they believe is reliable. Neither Arete Wealth nor its affiliates, warrants its completeness or accuracy, nor do their opinions reflect the opinion of Arete Wealth. This podcast is for general informational purposes only and should not be regarded as specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Before making any decisions consult a professional. Finally, our music is the chance by Jason Shaw and Audionautix. It’s part of the YouTube Audio Library and it’s licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Thank you for listening.

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